(Or how to vote tactically in 2020.)
Now that I've piqued your interest with a little outrage, this post is a quick tutorial on tactical voting for 2020.
Some people have been saying things like
“Biden is the most likely to listen to Yang and the least likely to run again"
“Bernie’s ideas are the closest to Yangs’ of those likely to win”
I wanted to Think Harder about this so I did some #MATH.
So lets get started on some key points about our goals
1.) Yang will not win 2020.
Sorry. I really wish he would too.
2.) That means our goal is a Yang presidency in 2024 and/or Yang policy ideas adopted before then
3.) So how can you vote to best make that happen?
For this I considered several points.
1.) Prevent an incumbent running against Yang in 2024 (they tend to win a lot)
2.) Minimize damage to country 2020-2024
3.) Be realistic about what my vote is most likely to sway
So, I prepared an analysis that considers objective measures like 538s odds of winning 50%+1 delegates at the national level before the convention. Also measured that specific to my state for my primary vote. I considered the candidates ages on Election Day 2020 and 2024 and what that implied about their probability of being dead.
Then I added subjective measures to adjust for my own observations, like how Biden is showing his age worse than Sanders despite being younger, how open each candidate seems to Andrews ideas and a personal assessment of how bad a presidency by that candidate would be for the Nation.
You can save a copy of my sheet and fill it out for yourself!
The upshot for me is that I’m still voting for Yang.
The odds are most likely going to lead to a brokered convention. I cannot likely swing my state through my vote or advocacy from Sanders having the most delegates (42% chance) to Biden having the most delegates (28%) or deny it to Bloomberg (19%) even if that were what I wanted. So my best option is to get Andrew a shot at delegates for the brokered 2020 convention (38% chance) or even just a message sent that I want him back on the ballot in 2024.
So there it is. Tactical voting and emotional preference align. I feel much better - do you?